We know the odds of getting a head is (1/2) and we know tails is also (1/2). There I shall wait for my sons to join me. . Or if you are me in the one game I have played the probability of success in either of those is under %5 somewhere. Enter the full URL of your item or group's Facebook page, Enter the full URL of your item or group's Twitter page. As promised, a bit about the pillaging math: Since we are shooting for a target number (let's say 13) in order to see what die roll we need, we obviously subtract our bonus from the target number. What is the chance I will roll a 9 or higher at least once out of my 3 rolls? If you have a related Youtube channel, enter the URL. Y'know, when I picked up AFfO, I never once thought I'd end up being glad for all the Blood Bowl I'd played beforehand. I shall not enter Odin’s hall with fear. . . Includes all the content that I could find for the game, including the Norwegians, promotional items, and unofficial fan creations.---Instructions from previous mod---- Simply click on an action space to automatically move your workers to the space - Click "Return last worker" to return the last worker you played. #hvitserk #historyvikings #history #vikings #viking #berserker #norse #norsemythology #lothbrok #ragnar #Kattegat #scandinavian #scandinavia #odin #valhalla, Like father like son ⚔ #historyvikings #history #vikings #vikingsseason5 #viking #ragnar #lothbrok #bjorn #ragnarlothbrok #lodbrok #bjornironside #warrior #king #kingbjorn #kingragnar #norse #norsehistory, Evolution of Ragnar Lothbrok ⚔️ Who Wants To Be King? What are the odds of rolling a 9 or better? I had considered the negative side briefly but I thought it might take an extra step for people who were maybe not as math-friendly. Features: - A resource "dispenser", just hit the buttons and walk away with your goods! Then we subtract the whole thing from 1 to give us the "opposite.". Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. For some, this may be enough to gamble in a tight spot! "What are the odds of getting exactly 1 head out of 3 flips? Vikings TV Show Ragnar Lothbrok Arm Ring. #vikings #historyvikings #history #norse #pagan #ragnarlothbrok #ragnar #lothbrok #lodbrok #lagertha #rollo #floki #bjorn #ivar #ubbe #hvitserk, #harald #kingharald #vikings #history #series #ragnarlothbrok #ragnar #lothbrok #kattegat #king #ivartheboneless #bjornironside #ubbe #hvitserk #lagertha #nordic #scandinavian #norse #north #movie #warrior #berserker #norsemythology, #vikings #history #series #ragnarlothbrok #ragnar #lothbrok #kattegat #king #ivartheboneless #bjornironside #ubbe #hvitserk #lagertha #nordic #scandinavian #norse #north #art #movie #warrior #berserker #norsemythology, #ivar #godivar #vikings #history #series #ragnarlothbrok #ragnar #lothbrok #kattegat #king #ivartheboneless #bjornironside #ubbe #hvitserk #lagertha #nordic #scandinavian #norse #movie #tales #warrior #berserker #travisfimmel #fimmel #alexanderludwig #katherynwinnick #alexhoghandersen #norsemythology. You have 3 rolls to succeed, but the catch is you don't get to see all 3 and then pick the best - you have to decide after each roll if you'd like to take that result or continue rolling. The Binomial theorem is pretty slick and I'm sure you can find more info on it online, especially if you've ever wondered if Pascal's Triangle has any real use beyond doodling in your math class. Thanks for the feedback! For those unfamiliar or that need a refresher, for hunting/fishing/whaling, the goal is to get your roll to zero, where you take your die roll and subtract the applicable bonus. Where's the unintuitive part? Thank you for reading and please let me know if any of my math is wrong! Could the fallen file be uploaded again? “A Feast for Odin” is a saga in the form of a board game. You are reliving the cultural achievements, mercantile expeditions, and pillages of those tribes we know as “Vikings” today—a term that was used quite differently towards the end of the first millennium. It also generalizes to a nice sigma (GASP!) This item will only be visible in searches to you, your friends, and admins. Did you scan the almanac and everything? Exactly, the probability to fail 3 times is very easy to calculate. . The #1 reddit source for news, information, and discussion about modern board games and board game culture. I’ve wondered about the probability of these actions before. Soon I shall be drinking ale from curved horns. the p is whatever your bonus is. So that's how we get p for pillaging and raiding. Meaning, if we have a bonus of 6 for whaling, we'll stop rolling as soon as we hit a 6 or lower, no matter if it's roll #1, #2, or #3 - this discounts any further gambling :), We are truthfully just asking this question "what are my odds of rolling my bonus value or below, when I have 3 rolls, at least once?". A Feast for Odin with scripted round set-up and worker placement. In AFFO there are a handful of actions where you roll a d8 or d12. 13-4 = 9, so we know we need to roll a 9 or better. There is one file in the mod that uploaded onto biteinto.info which is already out of date. Do you think there's any chance this mod will see the addition of The Norwegians expansion? There I shall wait for my sons to join me. What if I have only 3 bonus for whaling? This hero that comes into Valhalla does not lament his death! Pillaging and Raiding are a bit more complex since the target numbers change, so I made this interactive google sheet. This is all pretty straightforward. #ragnarfinalspeech #ragnar #lothbrok #lodbrok #ragnarlothbrok #historyvikings #vikings #viking #norse #valhalla #valknut #runes #valkyries #odin @valhallavikingsvibes, @marcoilsoe : Cruising through Kattegat ⚔ A Probability Feast for Odin: Unintuitive Probability for Dice Rolls Preparedness In AFFO there are a handful of actions where you roll a d8 or d12. This is a bit tricky because we have to count the 9 itself, so we might be tempted to say 3/12, since that's 10, 11 and 12, but truthfully it's 4/12, because we include the 9. If I'm going whaling and have one whaling ship (printed ore) with an ore placed on it, and 2 spears, I need to roll a 4 or less, so the numbers on the d12 that will work for me are 1,2,3 and 4, which means my probability of winning on any individual die roll is 4/12 ( 33.333%, I'm not reducing fractions for the sake of seeing the numbers that better communicate the in-game info). This post will explain the true unintuitive probability of success on one of these actions, and then give a generalized formula for calculating it yourself! Now we apply the negation rule to get the probability that you do succeed (1 - .42.18) and get the 57.82%. Hi. Edit: Just wanted to add that I had a lot of fun going through all the examples. And when they do, I will bask in their tales of triumph. ", Pillaging/Raiding => p = 1 - [13 - 4 -1]/[12] = 1 - (8/12) = (4/12). Popular Tags: United States Buffalo New York "....A horrible monster comes when the moon's full, you know!!...." You need to sign in or create an account to do that. Having a bonus of 4 is 70%, which for some people could be more than enough to take the chance, especially measuring the opportunity cost of wasting precious vikings on more resource or weapon card actions. Got this in the mail last week, what a goliath. You may be reluctant to go whaling if you have only a 3 bonus, but you actually have about a 58% chance of succeeding. A Feast For Odin. Looks like you're using new Reddit on an old browser. Please renew. My death comes without apology! I think it's because you have a better chance of succeeding than you may think with fewer bonuses! Vikings Apparel & Accessories like Ragnar bracelet, Lagertha shield, Ivar T-Shirts and more... “It gladdens me to know that Odin prepares for a feast. Your Tags: Add tags. Thanks for sharing! It turns out you don't really need to have 10 wood/spears/ore to have a significant statistical advantage for whaling, so it's advisable not to over-extend yourself on the collection of resources just to "guarantee" it. To account for that, we just subtract an extra 1 from the equation, as if we have one extra "built-in" bonus. . You are reliving the cultural achievements, mercantile expeditions, and pillages of those tribes we know as “Vikings” today—a term that was used quite differently towards the end of the first millennium. And I welcome the valkyries to summon me home!” - King Ragnar ⚔ . just wondering if im not seeing it on the setup Chabar Feb 27, 2019 @ 4:23am Hey great mod! A Feast for Odin» Forums » Rules Subject: Silverware with the forge symbol? Just Give Me The Reference Charts Already! Yes, I know how probability works don't come at me. . All trademarks are property of their respective owners in the US and other countries. Warning: Mathy post, so if you just want a brief TL;DR and the formula, skip to the end! -Goku . I can't really write it on reddit that well, but the r here goes from 1 to 3, to cover all three of the expressions above. #vikings #history #series #ragnarlothbrok #ragnar #lothbrok #kattegat #king #ivartheboneless #bjornironside #ubbe #hvitserk #lagertha #nordic #scandinavian #norse #north #art #movie #drawing #tales #warrior #berserker #vikingsturkiye #travisfimmel #fimmel #alexanderludwig #katherynwinnick #alexhoghandersen #norsemythology, November* Also the spreadsheet is, of course, for memorization so you can play without the reference and dazzle everyone with your risk-taking :). This is a reoganized version.. of a reorganized version.. of A Feast for Odin. If you have a 5 whaling bonus, then the probability of rolling a 5 or lower EXACTLY once in 3 rolls is: But we aren't concerned with getting a 5 or lower exactly once. Sorry if this was asked already, but why on the blue silverware tokens is there a forge symbol? . The classic way to do probability like this is with the Binomial method. . Tabletop Simulator> Workshop > SketchyGalore's Workshop > A Feast for Odin - Scripted This item has been removed from the community because it violates Steam Community & … Let's say our bonus is 4. The bracelet meant to signify a boy becoming a man and his allegiance to the Jarl. This hero that comes into Valhalla does not lament his death! You have 3 rolls to succeed, but the catch is you don't get to see all 3 and then pick the best - you have to decide after … Especially since you get a spear, a wood, and 2 vikings back for failing, You can also do it backwards, by choosing a % and then solving for p, to answer the question "what should my bonus be if I want 80% chance? Please see the. This makes sense on an individual die roll basis, but the probability gets interesting when you factor in the fact that we have multiple rolls... ...and we only need one of them to count! Now it's weird to consider "at least once" since I already said we'll stop after we get ANY winning number, but there are two scenarios where we win on the 2nd roll: L-W-L and L-W-W. We need both of these to count in our probability, so even though game-wise we'd never actually get to the 3rd roll (if we win on the 2nd), we still need to count it as a winning arrangement. “It gladdens me to know that Odin prepares for a feast. © Valve Corporation. You can also think of it as the odds of "not getting 8 or lower", Cool stuff! . ", "I have 2 stone and 2 swords and I want to get something with a plunder value of 13. Also, with the spreadsheet it’s obviously a lot quicker and more reliable for calculating the odds... though, I think my group might object to playing a game with a literal spreadsheet to help calculate the exact odds. SKIP TO HERE, but you can also skip further to "An Important Gameplay Lesson". This item will only be visible to you, admins, and anyone marked as a creator. “A Feast for Odin” is a saga in the form of a board game. I shall not enter Odin’s hall with fear. Again, the catch is that you have to take one roll at a time, so if you need a 4 or below and get a 3, you COULD roll again to see if you can "do better.".

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